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SIMULASI PERUBAHAN PENGGUNAAN LAHAN DENGAN KONSEP CELLULER AUTOMATA DI KOTA MATARAM
Abstract
Dinamika perubahan penggunaan lahan dapat dipahami secara spasial dengan memanfaatkan data penginderaan jauh dan sistem informasi geografis. Penelitian ini bertujuan membangun model perubahan penggunaan lahan di Kota Mataram untuk memprediksi penggunaan lahan di Kota Mataram pada tahun2031. Model yang dibangun adalah hasil analisis spasial dari pola perubahan penggunaan lahan dari kurun waktu tahun 2008 sampai tahun 2017 dengan menggunakan konsep cellular automata. Penentuan aturan transisi dan faktor-faktor pendorong perubahan lahan serta nilai pengaruh (bobot) masing-masing faktor tersebut merupakan hal yang penting untuk membangun model prediksi perubahan lahan. Hasil perhitungan validitas model menujukkan tingkat akurasi model sebesar 84,18%. Dari tahun 2017 sampai tahun 2031 terjadi peningkatan secara signifikan luasan penggunaan lahan industri dan pergudangan, perdagangan dan jasa, dan permukiman di Kota Mataram berturut-turut sebesar 9,861 hektar, 355,354 hektar, dan 482,697 hektar. Pemanfaatan simulasi perubahan penggunaan lahan dengan konsep Cellular Automata ini dapat diterapkan untuk mengevaluasi Rencana Tata Ruang dan Wilayah Kota.
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