DOI: https://doi.org/10.14710/jfma.v4i1.8385

LOGISTIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT OF COVID-19 SPREAD WITH PHYSICAL DISTANCING INTERVENTION

Okky Widya Arditya  -  Dept. of Mathematics, Diponegoro University, Indonesia
*Widowati Widowati  -  Dept. of Mathematics, Diponegoro University, Indonesia
Sutimin Sutimin  -  , Indonesia
R. Heru Tjahjana  -  Dept. of Mathematics, Diponegoro University, Indonesia
Priyo Sidik Sasongko  -  Dept. of Mathematics, Diponegoro University, Indonesia

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Abstract
In early 2020, covid-19 spread fast in the worldwide and cause the high death. The disease started from the Asian region which resulted in a viral pandemic in 2020. In order to anticipate the increasing of the cases, a strategy is needed to inhibit its transmission. The mathematical model approach is important tool for predicting of covid-19 spread in populations. In this paper we propose and analyze the dynamical behaviour of a developed logistic model by considering the effect of the contact patterns in reducing the covid-19 spread process. To verify the developed logistic model, numerical simulation was given with case study of covid-19 spread for patients under supervision in Central Java Province, Indonesia. Based on simulation results, it was found that physical distancing can reduce the growth of the covid-19 spread for patient under supervision. It can be seen from the number of covid-19 spread for patients under supervision with physical distancing intervention smaller compared to without physical distancing intervention.
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Section: FUNDAMENTAL MATHEMATICS AND APPLICATIONS
Language : EN
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