DOI: https://doi.org/10.14710/agrisocionomics.v9i3.26243

Global Tobacco Tapestry: Unraveling the Interdependencies and Drivers of Unmanufactured Tobacco Imports

*Ati Kusmiati orcid scopus  -  Departemen of Agribusiness , Jember University, JL. Kalimantan No. 37 Jember, Jawa Timur, Indonesia 68121, Indonesia
Rena Yunita Rahman scopus  -  Departemen of Agribusiness , Jember University, JL. Kalimantan No. 37 Jember, Jawa Timur, Indonesia 68121, Indonesia
Rizky Yanuarti scopus  -  Departemen of Agribusiness , Jember University, JL. Kalimantan No. 37 Jember, Jawa Timur, Indonesia 68121, Indonesia
Titin Agustina scopus  -  Departemen of Agribusiness , Jember University, JL. Kalimantan No. 37 Jember, Jawa Timur, Indonesia 68121, Indonesia
Ebban Bagus Kuntadi scopus  -  Departemen of Agribusiness , Jember University, JL. Kalimantan No. 37 Jember, Jawa Timur, Indonesia 68121, Indonesia
Agus Supriono scopus  -  Departemen of Agribusiness , Jember University, JL. Kalimantan No. 37 Jember, Jawa Timur, Indonesia 68121, Indonesia
Shafira Salsabila  -  Departemen of Agribusiness , Jember University, JL. Kalimantan No. 37 Jember, Jawa Timur, Indonesia 68121, Indonesia
Open Access Copyright 2025 Agrisocionomics: Jurnal Sosial Ekonomi Pertanian under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0.

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Abstract

Indonesia holds significant potential in both domestic and international tobacco markets, ranking as the world's fourth-largest producer after China, India, and Brazil. However, unmanufactured tobacco (HS 2401) exports lag imports, potentially impacting the economy negatively. This study analyzes the dependency, openness, and characteristics of Indonesia's tobacco imports over a 10-year period (2014-2023), alongside the factors influencing import volumes from 1992 to 2022. Secondary data was sourced from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), UN Comtrade, FAO, and the Ministry of Agriculture. Analytical methods included the Import Dependency Ratio (IDR), Self-Sufficiency Ratio (SSR), Trade Specialization Index (TSI), Import Openness Degree (IOD), Geographic Concentration Degree (GCD), and multiple linear regression. The results reveal an average IDR of 26.96% and an SSR of 73.04%, indicating that 26.96% of tobacco demand is met through imports, while 73.04% is fulfilled domestically. The average TSI value of -0.55 signifies Indonesia as a net importer. The average import openness (IOD) was 0.06% of GDP during 2014-2023. International tobacco prices and domestic demand significantly influenced import volumes, whereas domestic production and prices showed no significant impact. The Indonesian cigarette industry exhibits high import dependence due to domestic production not yet meeting required quantity and quality standards. Recommendations include enhancing tobacco quantity and quality through Good Agricultural Practices (GAP) implementation, providing comprehensive support for developing industry-aligned tobacco, and ratifying the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) to reduce tobacco consumption and imports.

 

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Keywords: geographic concentration, import dependency, import openness, import volume, unmanufactured tobacco
Funding: Universitas Jember

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