DOI: https://doi.org/10.14710/jwl.14.1.76-93

Eksplorasi Pengaruh Deforestasi, Lahan Pertanian, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Terhadap Kualitas Lingkungan di Indonesia

*Hasbi Hasbi orcid  -  Depertement of Sharia Economic ,Sekolah Tinggi Agama Islam Mulia Astuti Wonogiri, Indonesia, Indonesia
Suci Wulandari Siregar  -  Jurusan Ekonomi Syariah, Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Tarbiyah, Jl. Deblod Sundoro No.9C, Rambung, Kec. Tebing Tinggi Kota, Kota Tebing Tinggi, Sumatera Utara 20633, Indonesia
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Abstract
Penelitian ini menganalisis pengaruh deforestasi, lahan pertanian, dan pertumbuhan ekonomi terhadap kualitas lingkungan yang diproksikan oleh emisi CO₂ di Indonesia. Studi ini bertujuan untuk menguji keberlakuan hipotesis Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) serta mengidentifikasi dinamika hubungan jangka pendek dan jangka panjang antar variabel. Penelitian menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan metode Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) terhadap data runtun waktu periode 1990–2020. Hasil uji kointegrasi Johansen menunjukkan adanya hubungan jangka panjang yang signifikan di antara variabel penelitian (trace statistic = 98,88 > nilai kritis 47,86; α = 5%). Estimasi VECM jangka panjang menunjukkan bahwa deforestasi berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap emisi CO₂ dengan koefisien sebesar 2,617 (t-statistik = 3,817; p < 0,01), lahan pertanian sebesar 1,414 (t-statistik = 2,932; p < 0,01), dan pertumbuhan ekonomi sebesar 0,545 (t-statistik = 2,342; p < 0,05). Sementara itu, dalam jangka pendek hanya deforestasi yang berpengaruh signifikan terhadap emisi CO₂ dengan koefisien 2,324 (t-statistik = 2,088; p < 0,05), sedangkan lahan pertanian dan pertumbuhan ekonomi tidak menunjukkan pengaruh yang signifikan. Temuan ini mengindikasikan bahwa degradasi kualitas lingkungan di Indonesia lebih dipengaruhi oleh perubahan penggunaan lahan dan pertumbuhan ekonomi dalam jangka panjang dibandingkan efek jangka pendek. Implikasi kebijakan dari penelitian ini menekankan pentingnya pengendalian deforestasi dan pengelolaan lahan pertanian yang berkelanjutan sebagai bagian integral dari strategi pembangunan ekonomi rendah karbon di Indonesia.
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Keywords: Agrikultur; Deforestasi; Lingkungan; Pertumbuhan Ekonomi.

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