DOI: https://doi.org/10.14710/jwl.13.2.1-19

Skenario Mitigasi Gas Rumah Kaca: Studi Kasus Pengurangan Emisi Kota Probolinggo

*Adjie Pamungkas orcid scopus  -  Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember, Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Surabaya, Indonesia|, Indonesia
Gita Rama Mahardhika orcid  -  Monash University Indonesia, Tangerang, Indonesia, Indonesia
Anggi Dela Ayu Puspita  -  Development Initiative for Indonesia (DIFI), Surabaya, Indonesia, Indonesia
Meirli Kurniawan  -  Pemerintah Kota Probolinggo, Probolinggo, Indonesia, Indonesia
Ihsani Merdekawati  -  Pemerintah Kota Probolinggo, Probolinggo, Indonesia, Indonesia
Aricandra Nurkholishari  -  Pemerintah Kota Probolinggo, Probolinggo, Indonesia, Indonesia
Achsan Jamalurrusid  -  Pemerintah Kota Probolinggo, Probolinggo, Indonesia, Indonesia
Open Access Copyright (c) 2025 Jurnal Wilayah dan Lingkungan
Creative Commons License This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Citation Format:
Abstract
Perubahan iklim berdampak luas terhadap sektor lingkungan, sosial, dan ekonomi, serta berpotensi mengganggu stabilitas pembangunan jangka panjang. Mitigasi perubahan iklim memerlukan strategi yang terintegrasi, termasuk pada tingkat lokal melalui penyusunan Rencana Aksi Daerah Penurunan Emisi Gas Rumah Kaca (RAD-GRK). Kota Probolinggo telah menyusun RAD-GRK periode 2013–2020 dan kini membutuhkan pembaruan data dan strategi untuk periode selanjutnya. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menghitung dan memproyeksikan emisi GRK Kota Probolinggo hingga tahun 2030, serta menyusun skenario mitigasi berbasis data. Metode yang digunakan adalah pendekatan kuantitatif melalui inventarisasi berbasis aktivitas dan proyeksi ekonomi, menggunakan kalkulator emisi ICLEI dengan tahun dasar 2019. Hasil menunjukkan proyeksi emisi GRK pada tahun 2030 sebesar 1.300.964 ton CO₂e, dengan kapasitas serapan ruang terbuka hijau (RTH) sebesar 811.879 ton CO₂e. Dari total emisi tersebut, disusun empat skenario mitigasi, dengan skenario keempat atau skenario progresif dengan penurunan emisi tertinggi sebesar 15,19% yang disepakati oleh Pemerintah Kota Probolinggo menjadi target penurunan emisinya pada 2030. Target penurunan emisi tersebut ditranslasikan melalui strategi mitigasi mencakup efisiensi energi, pemanfaatan CH₄, pengurangan pupuk nitrogen, pengurangan limbah, dan peningkatan RTH.
Fulltext View|Download
Keywords: Emisi GRK; Mitigasi; Perubahan Iklim; Probolinggo; Proyeksi; RAD-GRK

Article Metrics:

Article Info
Section: Research Articles
Language : ID
Recent articles
Prosedur dalam Penerapan Tertib Pemeliharaan Tanah dan Lingkungan Hidup pada Pertambangan Batu Gamping Semen A di Banyumas The Relationship Between Tourism Development with Primary Forest in Indonesia Identification of Land Use Changes Due to Changes in Coastlines in the Amurang Coastal Area, South Minahasa Regency More recent articles
  1. Allcott, H., & Rogers, T. (2014). The Short-Run and Long-Run Effects of Behavioral Interventions: Experimental Evidence from Energy Conservation. American Economic Review, 104(10). https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.104.10.3003
  2. Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) Kota Probolinggo. (2015). Kota Probolinggo Dalam Angka 2015. https://probolinggokota.bps.go.id/id/publication/2015/11/20/1789a5cd0b0fb6540ddc69a4/kota-probolinggo-dalam-angka-2015.html
  3. Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) Kota Probolinggo. (2016). Kota Probolinggo Dalam Angka 2016. https://probolinggokota.bps.go.id/id/publication/2016/07/15/f74edd8141b3014d0e31ec2c/kota-probolinggo-dalam-angka-2016.html
  4. Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) Kota Probolinggo. (2017). Kota Probolinggo Dalam Angka 2017. https://probolinggokota.bps.go.id/id/publication/2017/08/11/e5ac39b185da1596e728c988/kota-probolinggo-dalam-angka-2017.html
  5. Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) Kota Probolinggo. (2018). Kota Probolinggo Dalam Angka 2018. https://probolinggokota.bps.go.id/id/publication/2018/08/16/2e3e073d09f89164360cd127/kota-probolinggo-dalam-angka-2018.html
  6. Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) Kota Probolinggo. (2019). Kota Probolinggo Dalam Angka 2019. https://probolinggokota.bps.go.id/id/publication/2019/08/16/50555cb23691b82aa15639d6/kota-probolinggo-dalam-angka-2019.html
  7. Bagheri, M., Mladenović, M. N., Kosonen, I., & Nurminen, J. K. (2020). Analysis of potential shift to low-carbon urban travel modes: A computational framework based on high-resolution smartphone data. Sustainability (Switzerland), 12(15). https://doi.org/10.3390/SU12155901
  8. Bölük, G., & Kaplan, R. (2022). Effectiveness of renewable energy incentives on sustainability: evidence from dynamic panel data analysis for the EU countries and Turkey. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29(18), 26613–26630. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-17801-y
  9. Bowman, C., Yu, S., Song, J., & O’Neill, J. (2021). Building Energy Efficiency Retrofits: Policies and Market Transformation
  10. Burley Farr, K., Song, K., Yeo, Z. Y., Johnson, E., & Hsu, A. (2023). Cities and regions tackle climate change mitigation but often focus on less effective solutions. Communications Earth and Environment, 4(1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-01108-6
  11. Burrows, L. (2024). EPA underestimates methane emissions from landfills, urban areas. Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences. https://seas.harvard.edu/news/2024/05/epa-underestimates-methane-emissions-landfills-urban-areas
  12. C40 Cities. (2018a). 27 C40 Cities Have Peaked Their Greenhouse Gas Emissions. https://www.c40knowledgehub.org/s/article/27-C40-Cities-have-peaked-their-greenhouse-gas-emissions
  13. C40 Cities. (2018b). City of Paris passes its new Air Quality, Energy & Climate Action Plan. C40 Cities. https://www.c40.org/news/city-of-paris-passes-its-new-air-quality-energy-climate-action-plan/
  14. Carreño, C. (2020). The Value of Using Notation Keys in City Scale Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventories: Learning From Absent Data. https://www.thegpsc.org/knowledge-products/climate-change/value-using-notation-keys-city-scale-greenhouse-gas-emission
  15. Denchak, M. (2023). Greenhouse Effect 101. Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC). https://www.nrdc.org/stories/greenhouse-effect-101
  16. Energy Star. (2024). Energy Efficiency Reduces Industrial Carbon Emissions. United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). https://www.energystar.gov/industrial_plants/decarbonizing_industry/energy_efficiency_reduces_industrial_carbon_emissions
  17. European Commission. (n.d.). Causes of climate change. Retrieved April 3, 2025, from https://climate.ec.europa.eu/climate-change/causes-climate-change_en
  18. Fitrahadi, M., Andriansyah, T., Fahnur, I., Hariani, M., & Widjaja, A. (2024). Implementation of Car-Free Days in Support of Sustainable Development to Reduce Vehicle CO2 Emissions in Urban Areas. Journal Transnational Universal Studies, 2(11). https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.58631/jtus.v2i11.132
  19. Fong, W., Sotos, M., Doust, M., Schultz. S, Marques, A., Deng-Beck, C., Kovac, A., Bhatia, P., Russell, B., Morris, E., Staden, M., Arikan, Y., Eichel, A., Dickinson, J., Desai, R., & Hoornweg, D. (2014). Global Protocol for Community-Scale Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventories: An Accounting and Reporting Standard for Cities. https://www.wri.org/research/global-protocol-community-scale-greenhouse-gas-emission-inventories
  20. González, I., Barba-Brioso, C., Campos, P., Romero, A., & Galán, E. (2016). Reduction of CO2 diffuse emissions from the traditional ceramic industry by the addition of Si-Al raw material. Journal of Environmental Management, 180, 190–196. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2016.05.039
  21. Hoppe, J., Hinder, B., Rafaty, R., Patt, A., & Grubb, M. (2023). Three Decades of Climate Mitigation Policy: What Has It Delivered? Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 48, 615–650. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-112321
  22. Hoy, Z. X., Sin Woon, K., Cheong Chin, W., Fan, Y. Van, & Yoo, S. J. (2023). Curbing global solid waste emissions toward net-zero warming futures. In Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science) (Vol. 382, Issue 6672). https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adg3177
  23. Kamran, M., Sajid, J., Sajid, M. N., Ahmad, M. M., Ismail, M. A., & Sajid, M. B. (2024). Energy efficiency and greenhouse gas emission reduction potential of solar PV and biomass-based systems for a food processing plant. Case Studies in Thermal Engineering, 60. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csite.2024.104674
  24. Kementerian Perencanaan Pembangunan Nasional. (2021). Kebijakan Pembangunan Berketahanan Iklim (Climate Resilience Development Policy) 2020-2045. https://lcdi-indonesia.id/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/0_Executive-Summary.pdf
  25. Kumamoto, M. (2017). Composting: Rethinking Food Waste. Greenleaf Communities. https://www.greenleafcommunities.org/composting-rethinking-food-waste/
  26. Laskurain, I., Ibarloza, A., Larrea, A., & Allur, E. (2017). Contribution to energy management of the main standards for environmental management systems: The case of ISO 14001 and EMAS. Energies, 10(11). https://doi.org/10.3390/en10111758
  27. Legionosuko, T., Madjid, M. A., Asmoro, N., & Samudro, E. G. (2019). Posisi dan Strategi Indonesia dalam Menghadapi Perubahan Iklim guna Mendukung Ketahanan Nasional. Jurnal Ketahanan Nasional, 25(3), 295. https://doi.org/10.22146/jkn.50907
  28. Li, J., & Makumbe, P. (2017, August 7). LED street lighting: Unburdening our cities. World Bank Blogs. https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/energy/led-street-lighting-unburdening-our-cities
  29. Lu, T., Xu, Y., Chen, L., Lu, L., & Ren, R. (2022). The Potential of Carbon Emissions Reductions of Public Bikes. Sustainability (Switzerland), 14(22). https://doi.org/10.3390/su142214831
  30. Luttik, J., & Maters, E. (2022). Best practices in greening transportation at Wageningen University & Research. Journal of Sustainability Perspectives, 2(2). https://doi.org/10.14710/jsp.2022.15474
  31. Maylor, C. (2024). Landfill methane projects lead in carbon market quality with CCP approval. 3Degrees. https://3degreesinc.com/insights/landfill-methane-projects-a-leader-in-carbon-market-standards-with-ccp-approval
  32. Mena-Worth, R. (2016). Children can help parents make energy-saving decisions at home, study suggests. Standford Graduate School of Education. https://ed.stanford.edu/news/children-can-help-parents-make-energy-saving-decisions-home-study-suggests
  33. New Climate Institute. (2019). Indonesia Assessment of Subnational and Non-State Climate Action. https://newclimate.org/sites/default/files/2019/09/19-9117_Factsheet_Indonesia_Country.pdf
  34. Nurani, I. W., Wibowo, S. B., Prihastopo, Z. I., Pelangi, A. P., & Sunardi, S. (2020). Contribution of waste bank in reducing greenhouse gas emissions in Bandung Regency. E3S Web of Conferences, 200. https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202020002004
  35. Peraturan Presiden (PERPRES) Nomor 61 Tahun 2011 Tentang Rencana Aksi Nasional Penurunan Emisi Gas Rumah Kaca (2011). https://peraturan.bpk.go.id/Details/41199/perpres-no-61-tahun-2011
  36. Peraturan Walikota Probolinggo Nomor 37 Tahun 2013 Tentang RAD Penurunan Emisi GRK (2013)
  37. Prasara, A. J., & Bridhikitti, A. (2022). Carbon footprint and cost analysis of a bicycle lane in a municipality. Global Journal of Environmental Science and Management, 8(2), 197–208. https://doi.org/10.22034/GJESM.2022.02.04
  38. Ranganathan, J., Corbier, L., Schmitz, S., Oren, K., Dawson, B., Spannagle, M., Boileau, P., Frederick, R., Vanderborght, B., Thomson, F., Kitamura, K., Woo, C., Pankhida, N., Segalen, L., Koch, J., Bhattacharjee, S., Cummis, C., Breidenich, C., Eaton, R., … Cook, E. (2004). The Greenhouse Gas Protocol: A Corporate Accounting and Reporting Standard (Revised Edition). https://ghgprotocol.org/sites/default/files/standards/ghg_project_accounting.pdf
  39. Roelfsema, M., van Soest, H. L., Harmsen, M., van Vuuren, D. P., Bertram, C., den Elzen, M., Höhne, N., Iacobuta, G., Krey, V., Kriegler, E., Luderer, G., Riahi, K., Ueckerdt, F., Després, J., Drouet, L., Emmerling, J., Frank, S., Fricko, O., Gidden, M., … Vishwanathan, S. S. (2020). Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement. Nature Communications, 11(1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15414-6
  40. Saltelli, A., Ratto, M., Andres, T., Campolongo, F., Cariboni, J., Gatelli, D., Saisana, M., & Tarantola, A. (2008). Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
  41. Sekretariat RAN-GRK. (2019). Laporan Implementasi Perencanaan Pembangunan Rendah Karbon
  42. Sethi, M., Lamb, W., Minx, J., & Creutzig, F. (2020). Climate change mitigation in cities: A systematic scoping of case studies. In Environmental Research Letters (Vol. 15, Issue 9). IOP Publishing Ltd. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab99ff
  43. Smith, E. D., Szidarovszky, F., Karnavas, W. J., & Bahill, A. T. (2008). Sensitivity Analysis, a Powerful System Validation Technique. In The Open Cybernetics and Systemics Journal (Vol. 2)
  44. Steenberg, J. W. N., Ristow, M., Duinker, P. N., Lapointe-Elmrabti, L., MacDonald, J. D., Nowak, D. J., Pasher, J., Flemming, C., & Samson, C. (2023). A national assessment of urban forest carbon storage and sequestration in Canada. Carbon Balance and Management, 18(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s13021-023-00230-4
  45. Tanigawa, S. (2017). Fact Sheet - Biogas: Converting Waste to Energy. https://www.eesi.org/papers/view/fact-sheet-biogasconverting-waste-to-energy
  46. Terrascope. (2024). Understanding Greenhouse Gases and Climate Change. https://www.terrascope.com/blog/understanding-greenhouse-gases-and-climate-change
  47. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (2006). 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (S. Eggleston, L. Buendia, K. Miwa, T. Ngara, & K. Tanabe, Eds.). Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES)
  48. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (2014). Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change (Working Group III Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (O. Edenhofer, R. Pichs-Madruga, Y. Sokono, J. Minx, E. Farahani, S. Kadner, K. Seyboth, A. Adler, I. Baum, S. Brunner, P. Eickemeier, B. Kriemann, J. Savolainen, S. Schllömer, C. Stechow, & T. Zwickel, Eds.). Cambridge University Press
  49. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (2022). Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change (Working Group III Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (P. R. Shukla, J. Skea, R. Slade, A. Khourdajie, A. Hasija, J. Malley, R. Fradera, M. Belkacemi, G. Lisboa, D. McCollum, P. Vyas, M. Pathak, R. Diemen, S. Luz, & S. Some, Eds.)
  50. Tvinnereim, E., & Mehling, M. (2018). Carbon pricing and deep decarbonisation. Energy Policy, 121, 185–189. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2018.06.020
  51. United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). (2024). Cities have a key role to play in tackling climate change – here’s why. Climate Promise. https://climatepromise.undp.org/news-and-stories/cities-have-key-role-play-tackling-climate-change-heres-why
  52. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). (n.d.). Global warming potential values under the temporary measures. Retrieved April 8, 2025, from https://cdm.unfccc.int/Reference/CDM_note
  53. United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). (2025). Local Topics - Energy Efficiency in Government Operations and Facilities. https://www.epa.gov/statelocalenergy/local-topics-energy-efficiency-government-operations-and-facilities
  54. United States Environmental Protection Agency (US-EPA). (2025). Sources of Greenhouse Gas Emissions. https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/sources-greenhouse-gas-emissions
  55. University of Oxford. (2021). Get on your bike: Study shows walking, cycling and e-biking make a significant impact on carbon emissions. https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2021-02-02-get-your-bike-study-shows-walking-cycling-and-e-biking-make-significant-impact
  56. Vaz Jr, S. (2022). Renewable Carbon: Science, Technology and Sustainability (1st ed.). Elsevier. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/C2021-0-02011-3
  57. World Meteorological Organization (WMO). (2025). Greenhouse gases. https://wmo.int/topics/greenhouse-gases
  58. Xie, L., Li, L., Xie, J., Wang, J., Anwar, S., Du, C., & Zhou, Y. (2022). Substituting Inorganic Fertilizers with Organic Amendment Reduced Nitrous Oxide Emissions by Affecting Nitrifiers’ Microbial Community. Land, 11(10). https://doi.org/10.3390/land11101702
  59. Zhang, Y., Meng, W., Yun, H., Xu, W., Hu, B., He, M., Mo, X., & Zhang, L. (2022). Is urban green space a carbon sink or source? - A case study of China based on LCA method. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 94. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2022.106766

Last update:

No citation recorded.

Last update:

No citation recorded.