DOI: https://doi.org/10.14710/jwl.13.2.1-19

Skenario Mitigasi Gas Rumah Kaca: Studi Kasus Pengurangan Emisi Kota Probolinggo

*Adjie Pamungkas orcid scopus  -  Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember, Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Surabaya, Indonesia|, Indonesia
Gita Rama Mahardhika orcid  -  Monash University Indonesia, Tangerang, Indonesia, Indonesia
Anggi Dela Ayu Puspita  -  Development Initiative for Indonesia (DIFI), Surabaya, Indonesia, Indonesia
Meirli Kurniawan  -  Pemerintah Kota Probolinggo, Probolinggo, Indonesia, Indonesia
Ihsani Merdekawati  -  Pemerintah Kota Probolinggo, Probolinggo, Indonesia, Indonesia
Aricandra Nurkholishari  -  Pemerintah Kota Probolinggo, Probolinggo, Indonesia, Indonesia
Achsan Jamalurrusid  -  Pemerintah Kota Probolinggo, Probolinggo, Indonesia, Indonesia
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Abstract
Perubahan iklim berdampak luas terhadap sektor lingkungan, sosial, dan ekonomi, serta berpotensi mengganggu stabilitas pembangunan jangka panjang. Mitigasi perubahan iklim memerlukan strategi yang terintegrasi, termasuk pada tingkat lokal melalui penyusunan Rencana Aksi Daerah Penurunan Emisi Gas Rumah Kaca (RAD-GRK). Kota Probolinggo telah menyusun RAD-GRK periode 2013–2020 dan kini membutuhkan pembaruan data dan strategi untuk periode selanjutnya. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menghitung dan memproyeksikan emisi GRK Kota Probolinggo hingga tahun 2030, serta menyusun skenario mitigasi berbasis data. Metode yang digunakan adalah pendekatan kuantitatif melalui inventarisasi berbasis aktivitas dan proyeksi ekonomi, menggunakan kalkulator emisi ICLEI dengan tahun dasar 2019. Hasil menunjukkan proyeksi emisi GRK pada tahun 2030 sebesar 1.300.964 ton CO₂e, dengan kapasitas serapan ruang terbuka hijau (RTH) sebesar 811.879 ton CO₂e. Dari total emisi tersebut, disusun empat skenario mitigasi, dengan skenario keempat atau skenario progresif dengan penurunan emisi tertinggi sebesar 15,19% yang disepakati oleh Pemerintah Kota Probolinggo menjadi target penurunan emisinya pada 2030. Target penurunan emisi tersebut ditranslasikan melalui strategi mitigasi mencakup efisiensi energi, pemanfaatan CH₄, pengurangan pupuk nitrogen, pengurangan limbah, dan peningkatan RTH.
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Keywords: Emisi GRK; Mitigasi; Perubahan Iklim; Probolinggo; Proyeksi; RAD-GRK

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