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Seismic waveform modeling of the 22 December 2018 flank collapse of Anak Krakatau volcano and implications for near-field multi-source tsunami warning

*Dimas Salomo Januarianto Sianipar scopus  -  Department of Geophysics, Sekolah Tinggi Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika (STMKG), Tangerang, Indonesia, Indonesia
Renhard Sipayung  -  Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG), Jakarta, Indonesia, Indonesia
M. Najib Syami Muqtadir  -  Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG), Jakarta, Indonesia, Indonesia
Indah Fajerianti  -  Department of Geophysics, Sekolah Tinggi Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika, Tangerang, Indonesia, Indonesia
Sandy Tri Gustono  -  Department of Geophysics, Sekolah Tinggi Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika, Tangerang, Indonesia, Indonesia
Moreno Wahyu Arieza  -  Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG), Jakarta, Indonesia, Indonesia
Received: 18 Jun 2026; Revised: 10 Aug 2026; Accepted: 12 Aug 2026; Available online: 31 Aug 2026; Published: 31 Aug 2026.

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Abstract

The 22 December 2018 flank collapse of Anak Krakatau volcano generated a destructive tsunami in the Sunda Strait without a preceding tectonic earthquake, highlighting the limitations of earthquake-based tsunami warning  for non-seismic tsunami sources. Previous studies have established that collapse of the volcano’s southwestern flank triggered the tsunami; however, the detailed force evolution and kinematic behavior of the collapse remain incompletely understood. In this study, we use broadband seismic waveforms recorded by the Agency for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics (BMKG) network and apply the LS-FORCE single-force inversion framework to reconstruct the dynamic source process of the collapse. The inversion resolves three-dimensional force-time functions, force-vector orientations, and center-of-mass trajectories of the moving mass. Results reveal a dominant southwestward-directed collapse characterized by peak force amplitudes of approximately 8–9 × 1011 N and a principal acceleration phase lasting about 20–30 s. Trajectory reconstruction indicates an effective moving mass of approximately 9.47 × 1010 kg and a runout distance of about 10 km, consistent with independent geological, geodetic, and remote-sensing observations. Comparison with previous seismic studies confirms the inferred collapse direction and tsunami-generation mechanism while providing new constraints on the temporal evolution of force release and collapse kinematics. These findings demonstrate that long-period seismic observations contain sufficient information not only to detect collapses but also to quantify their dynamics. The results highlight the potential of force-based seismic inversion as a rapid characterization tool for volcanic landslides and other tsunamigenic mass movements, contributing to the development of near-field multi-source tsunami warning systems.

Keywords: Anak Krakatau flank collapse; Landslide Seismology; Single-force inversion; Landslide Tsunami

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Language : EN
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