Seasonal Variation in Rice Price Transmission in Indonesia

Zhena Nofhatiaz Zahra; Zikra Fernando; Rio Akbar Rahmatullah

doi:10.14710/agrisocionomics.v10i2.28636

DOI: https://doi.org/10.14710/agrisocionomics.v10i2.28636

Seasonal Variation in Rice Price Transmission in Indonesia

*Zhena Nofhatiaz Zahra

- Department of Resources and Environmental Economics, IPB University, Jl. Raya Darmaga Kampus IPB, Babakan, Kec. Dramaga, Kabupaten Bogor, Jawa Barat, Indonesia, Indonesia

Zikra Fernando

- Departement of Agribusiness Faculty of Economics and Management Bogor Agricultural University. Jl. Kamper, Wing 4 Level 5 Campus of IPB Darmaga Bogor, Indonesia, Indonesia

Rio Akbar Rahmatullah

- Department of Resources and Environmental Economics, IPB University, Jl. Raya Darmaga Kampus IPB, Babakan, Kec. Dramaga, Kabupaten Bogor, Jawa Barat, Indonesia, Indonesia

under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0.

BibTex Citation Data :

@article{Agrisocionomics28636,
    author = {Zhena Zahra and Zikra Fernando and Rio Rahmatullah},
    title = {Seasonal Variation in Rice Price Transmission in Indonesia},
    journal = {Agrisocionomics: Jurnal Sosial Ekonomi Pertanian},
  volume = {10},
    number = {2},
    year = {2026},
    keywords = {Asymmetry, NARDL model, price transmission, rice, seasonal variation},
    abstract = {Rice is a strategic commodity serving as the staple food in Indonesia. Price transmission in the rice supply chain is critical for market efficiency and food security, yet existing studies often overlook seasonal variations and nonlinearity. This study aims to analyze seasonal variations in rice price transmission across producer, wholesaler, and traditional market levels in Indonesia during different seasons (February-May, June-September, October-January). The study employs monthly time-series data on medium rice prices from February 2020 to February 2025. The Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag model is used to capture short and long-run price transmission. Stationarity, cointegration, and Wald tests are conducted to validate the model. The findings reveal significant asymmetric price transmission during February-May and June-September, with farmers more vulnerable to price declines. Meanwhile, wholesalers and traditional markets responding faster to price increases. The October-January period shows stagnant dynamics due to low market activity. Long-run asymmetry is prevalent, indicating persistent market inefficiencies. Seasonal variations significantly influence rice price transmission in Indonesia, highlighting the need for season-based policy interventions to stabilize prices and protect farmers. Enhancing farmers' bargaining power and implementing technology-driven price monitoring systems are recommended to mitigate asymmetry and improve market efficiency},
   issn = {2621-9778},  doi = {10.14710/agrisocionomics.v10i2.28636},
    url = {https://ejournal2.undip.ac.id/index.php/agrisocionomics/article/view/28636}
}

Citation Format:

Abstract

Rice is a strategic commodity serving as the staple food in Indonesia. Price transmission in the rice supply chain is critical for market efficiency and food security, yet existing studies often overlook seasonal variations and nonlinearity. This study aims to analyze seasonal variations in rice price transmission across producer, wholesaler, and traditional market levels in Indonesia during different seasons (February-May, June-September, October-January). The study employs monthly time-series data on medium rice prices from February 2020 to February 2025. The Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag model is used to capture short and long-run price transmission. Stationarity, cointegration, and Wald tests are conducted to validate the model. The findings reveal significant asymmetric price transmission during February-May and June-September, with farmers more vulnerable to price declines. Meanwhile, wholesalers and traditional markets responding faster to price increases. The October-January period shows stagnant dynamics due to low market activity. Long-run asymmetry is prevalent, indicating persistent market inefficiencies. Seasonal variations significantly influence rice price transmission in Indonesia, highlighting the need for season-based policy interventions to stabilize prices and protect farmers. Enhancing farmers' bargaining power and implementing technology-driven price monitoring systems are recommended to mitigate asymmetry and improve market efficiency

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Keywords: Asymmetry, NARDL model, price transmission, rice, seasonal variation

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In Vol 10, No 2 (2026): June 2026

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