KETAHANAN PANGAN PENDUDUK DI PULAU JAWA: PENDEKATAN VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MODEL

*I made Yoga Prasada  -  Program Studi Ekonomi Pertanian, Fakultas Pertanian, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Indonesia
Moh Wahyudi Priyanto  -  Program Studi Ekonomi Pertanian, Fakultas Pertanian, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Indonesia
Yahya Shafiyuddin Hilmi  -  Program Studi Ekonomi Pertanian, Fakultas Pertanian, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Indonesia
Received: 5 Aug 2019; Published: 27 May 2020.
Open Access Copyright 2020 Agrisocionomics: Jurnal Sosial Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pertanian
License URL: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0

Citation Format:
Abstract
Food security over the past few decades has been a hot topic discussed in Indonesia. Food security can indirectly reflect the level of welfare of a household in a region. Various factors can influence the level of food security, both in the short term and in the long term. Therefore, this research was conducted with the aim to find out the factors that influence the food security of the population in the short term and in the long term. The data used in this study are secondary data sourced from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) in 2008-2017, namely data on food and non-food expenditure, real per capita income, agricultural land area, real sugar prices, real beef prices, and real rice prices. The data were analyzed using the VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) model. The results showed that in the short-term the factors that influence food security are income per capita real lag 1, real sugar prices lag 1, and real beef prices lag 1, while the factors that influence food security in the long-term are per capita income 1, agricultural area lag 1, real sugar 1 lag price, real beef price lag 1, and real rice price lag 1.
Keywords: Food Security, Java Island, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)

Article Metrics:

  1. Abustan, A., & Mahyuddin, M. (2009). Analisis Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) terhadap korelasi antara belanja publik dan pertumbuhan ekonomi di Sulawesi Selatan, tahun 1985-2005. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan: Kajian Masalah Ekonomi Dan Pembangunan, 10(1), 1–14. https://doi.org/10.23917/jep.v10i1.805
  2. Akanni, K. A. and Okeowo, T. A. (2011). Analysis of aggregate output supply response of selected food grains in Nigeria. Journal of Stored Products and Postharvest, 2(14), 266–278.
  3. Atmaja, M. A. J., Kencana, I. P. E. N., & Gandhiadi, G. K. (2015). Analisis kointegrasi jumlah wisatawan, inflasi dan nilai tukar terhadap Produk Domestik Regional Bruto ( PDRB ) Povinsi Bali. E-Jurnal Matematika, 4(3), 83–89.
  4. Ayinde, O. E., Bessler, D. A., & Oni, F. E. (2017). Analysis of supply and price risk on rice production in Nigeria. Journal of Agribusiness and Rural Development, 1(43), 17–24.
  5. BKP. (2017). Statistik Ketahanan Pangan 2016. Jakarta: Badan Ketahanan Pangan Kementerian Pertanian.
  6. BPS. (2016). Survei pertanian produksi tanaman padi dan palawija di Indonesia. (A. Achmad & J. Lumban, Eds.) (1st ed.). Jakarta: Badan Pusat Statistik Indonesia.
  7. Chamalwa, H. A., & Bakari, H. R. (2016). A Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Cointegration and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach for financial deepening indicators and economic growth in Nigeria. American Journal of Mathematical Analysis, 4(1), 1–6. https://doi.org/10.12691/ajma-4-1-1
  8. Ehirim, N. C., & Owerri. (2017). Soybean supply response to price and non-price factors in Nigeria : Implications for food security. Asian Journal of Agricultural Extension, Economics & Sociology, 15(3), 1–10. https://doi.org/10.9734/AJAEES/2017/8261
  9. Faridi, R., & Wadood, S. N. (2010). An econometric assessment of household food security in Bangladesh. The Bangladesh Development Studies, XXXIII(3), 97–111.
  10. Hasibuan, L. S., & Lestari, R. (2016). Analisis pola pengeluaran rumah tangga miskin di Kabupaten Simalungun. Ekonomikawan, 16(1), 38–55.
  11. Joshi, G., & Joshi, N. (2017). Determinants of household food security in the eastern region of Nepal. SAARC Journal of Agriculture, 14(2), 174–188. https://doi.org/10.3329/sja.v14i2.31257
  12. Masta, S. (2016). Analisis Vector Autoregresion (VAR) terhadap interrelationship antara IPM Dan pertumbuhan. Ekonomikawan, 16(2), 1–10.
  13. Muhammad, M. (2014). Kointegrasi dan estimasi ecm pada data time series. Jurnal Konvergensi, 4(1), 41–51.
  14. Negoro, W. J., M, M., & Hadayani. (2014). Analisis kebijakan ketersediaan stok beras (Studi kasus pada pergudangan beras Perum Bulog Kota Palu). E-J. Agrotekbis, 2(1), 62–68.
  15. Obayelu, A. E., & Sheu Salau, A. (2010). Agricultural Response to Prices and Exchange Rate in Nigeria: Application of Co-integration and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). J Agri Sci, 1(2), 73–81.
  16. Obayelu Abiodun Elijah. (2010). Global Food Price Increases and Nutritional Status of Nigerians : the Determinants , Coping Strategies , Policy Responses and Implications. ARPN Journal of Agricultural and Biological Science, 5(2), 67–80.
  17. Okon, B., & Sunday, A. (2014). Supply Response of Selected Agricultural Export Commodities in Nigeria. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 5(5), 2222–1700. Retrieved from www.iiste.org
  18. Prasada, I. M. Y., Dhamira, A., & Nugroho, A. D. (2018). Supply Response of Paddy in East Java : Policy Implications to Increase Rice Production. AGRARIS: Journal of Agribusiness and Rural Development Research, 4(2), 129–138.
  19. Purwaningsih, Y., Hartono, S., Masyhuri, M., & Mulyo, J. H. (2010). Pola pengeluaran pangan rumah tangga menurut tingkat ketahanan pangan di Provinsi Jawa Tengah. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan: Kajian Masalah Ekonomi Dan Pembangunan, 11(2), 236–253. https://doi.org/10.23917/jep.v11i2.327
  20. Rachmah, M. A., & Marzuki, S. (2017). Analisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi pengsa pengeluaran pangan rumah tangga petani di Kecamatan Suruh Kabupaten Semarang. Jurnal Pangan Dan Gizi, 7(1), 17–27.
  21. Rahim, S., Saeed, D., Rasool, G. A., & Saeed, G. (2011). Factors influencing household food security status. Food and Nutrition Sciences, 2(0), 31–34. https://doi.org/10.4236/fns.2011.21004
  22. Sianipar, J. E., Hartono, S., & Hutapea, R. T. P. (2012). Analisis ketahanan pangan rumah tangga tani di Kabupaten Manokwari. SEPA, 8(2), 51–182. Retrieved from http://agribisnis.fp.uns.ac.id/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/Jurnal-SEPA-68-ANALISIS-KETAHANAN-PANGAN-RUMAH-TANGGA-TANI-DI-KABUPATEN-MANOKWARI.pdf
  23. UU RI No.18. (2012). Undang-Undang NO 18 Tahun 2012. Undang-Undang Republik Indonesia, 1–83. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.004
  24. Widjojo, S. (2016). Ketahanan pangan Provinsi Jawa Barat dalam mendukung kedaulatan pangan Negara Kesatuan Republik Indonesia. Seminar Nasional Peran Geospasial Dalam Membingkai NKRI, 2016(2016), 323–329.